“To be honest things have not changed much for Chelsea over the summer, with the exit of Diego Costa and arrival of Alvaro Morata being the most obvious difference. Other than that it has been mostly cosmetic changes, with Antonio Conte trying to bring in some reinforcements for his preferred 3-4-3 formation.
“The approach remains similar to last season, with Morata linking play with the wide forwards around him and the wide midfielders – last season it was Marcos Alonso and Victor Moses – making the pitch as big as possible in possession. Last season a lot of teams found Chelsea very hard to work out, and even this season they struggle when Chelsea put it all together.
“As for aims for this season, I thought even before the weekend defeat to Crystal Palace that the Champions League is Conte’s top target – and that’s probably even more the case with the way the table is starting to look, with the Manchester clubs so strong. Chelsea have always had an obsession with the Champions League, even before lifting it in 2012, and Conte definitely wants to win it.”
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“Especially given Chelsea are at home, it’s almost certain Chelsea will play their preferred 3-4-3 formation. Conte could opt for a 3-5-2, but I’m not sure on this occasion he has enough central midfielders to do it.
“Alvaro Morata has been training this week at Cobham and Conte has suggested for the past week he was being readied for this game, so I expect him to start in attack with Eden Hazard and one of Willian and Pedro alongside him.
"The defence is pretty settled – David Luiz, Cesar Azpilicueta and Gary Cahill ahead of Thibaut Courtois. Conte could select Antonio Rudiger against his old club and push Azpilicueta further up on the right, but I’m not sure he will want to mess with the defensive unit. Rudiger has not quite established himself yet in the pecking order.
“In midfield, with Victor Moses injured at the weekend I expect David Zappacosta to come in on the right, with Marcos Alonso on the left and Fabregas and Tiemoue Bakayoko in the centre of the park.
Chelsea will be without N’Golo Kante, which is a huge loss. He might be their most important player (Hazard may be the most talented, but Kante makes it all work). He covers all the ground and covers any weak spots in the formation. He’s the best defensive midfielder in the Premier League, and possibly the world, and Chelsea don’t have an obvious replacement for him. Fabregas and Bakayoko are good but, in a two-man central midfield, they can be vulnerable.”
“It depends a bit on which Eden Hazard we get. If it’s the one that turned up against Atletico Madrid, where he was sensational, then Roma will have to deal with one of the best players in the world. Against Crystal Palace on Saturday, however, he was very quiet.
“So I will say Alvaro Morata. He scores for fun, he hasn’t taken any time to adapt to English football, and his movement and link-up play creates space and opportunities for others. He’s a reliable goalscorer, a proper focal point in attack, which Chelsea cannot replace when he isn’t there. If he isn’t fit for the game then Chelsea will have to change their style slightly – Michy Batshauyi could play, or we might even see Hazard start as a false nine.”
“For this one game, I’d take Edin Dzeko if Morata isn’t fit. He is obviously in great form and has that physical presence Chelsea could use. But I think more generally Conte really likes Alessandro Florenzi, with his technical quality and his ability to play across a number of positions.
“Of course there is Radja Nainggolan, who Conte is a big fan of and definitely wanted in the summer, but now Chelsea have Bakayoko the need for him isn't quite there. Florenzi has the sort of attributes that Conte seems to cherish.
“As for the group, Chelsea’s late winner against Atletico changed the complexion. Chelsea still need to do well in this double-header with Roma – take at least four points – but it’s not two must-win games like it could have been depending on the Atletico result. Fans know Roma are a dangerous team, especially in a group like this where Qarabag could lose all six matches and the head-to-heads with the other three sides become all the more important.
“Roma are capable and have experience at this level, but Conte never takes any team lightly. He will want his side to keep the momentum up in Europe – and will be extra keen for them to respond after back-to-back defeats in the Premier League."
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